3.2 million

[S.A. Boggs]

is the possible death's in America @ 1% mortality of infection...this is staggering and fearful.
Sam

[togor]

It is a serious situation for sure. But you have faced worse. Take one day at a time.

[Roadkingtrax]

I suspect that could be an overall total, but the Autumn may be worse than the Spring. The first wave most likely won't be that full amount.

[jon_norstog]

is the possible death's in America @ 1% mortality of infection...this is staggering and fearful.
Sam

That's if everyone gets the disease at once. It is going to be a lot, but maybe a factor of ten less. Depends on whether we can "flatten the curve" so the hospitals don't get overloaded. Dr. Fauci is saying 100,000-200,00 dead https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/fauci-predicts-100k-200k-us-deaths-spain-italy-demand-help.html

Stay safe, y'all!

jn

[S.A. Boggs]

What I was looking at was the possibility of 1% death ratio and a total of 320 million of US.
Sam

[togor]

Yes the math is understood.

North of 1M is a possibility.

Modifiers include the degree of overload in treatment availability for the severe cases, and the assumption one makes for the ratio of confirmed to non-confirmed cases. The family MD says estimates range 5-10X. We won't know until an antibody test is widely available.

A friend with Roche contacts says pharma is gearing up trials of existing immunosuppressant drugs, to see if they can prevent the inflammation overdrive that precipitates so many Covid-19 deaths.

[shadycon]

I suspect that could be an overall total, but the Autumn may be worse than the Spring. The first wave most likely won't be that full amount.

Sounds like you guys want this thing to last forever. Myself I hope it runs it course with MINIMUM casualties.

[togor]

Sounds like you guys want this thing to last forever. Myself I hope it runs it course with MINIMUM casualties.

Well if everyone gets at once then there aren't enough beds for the really sick ones, and you have Northern Italy again.

Put another way: worst time to get sick with this is at the same time as everyone else.

[S.A. Boggs]

Well if everyone gets at once then there aren't enough beds for the really sick ones, and you have Northern Italy again.

Put another way: worst time to get sick with this is at the same time as everyone else.

Very accurate statement.
Sam

[Gun Smoke]

Well if everyone gets at once then there aren't enough beds for the really sick ones, and you have Northern Italy again.

Put another way: worst time to get sick with this is at the same time as everyone else.

No one has that choice though. What happens, happens.

Hopefully with the weather warming up things will turn around soon.

[lyman]

No one has that choice though. What happens, happens.

Hopefully with the weather warming up things will turn around soon.

yep

be safe, wash hands etc etc,

hope it spreads out or goes away,, or the curve at least flattens out

[Former Cav]

it's going to get into the high 80's here in PHoenix by the end of this week.
We will see if the numbers climb or drop ..
what will be will be and not much we can do about it other then stay home, wash you hands etc.