Survival Rate on Model 1903's

[Southron]

A very knowledgeable collector of Civil War arms (Yankee and Confederate) estimates that the "Survival Rate" of original Civil War arms is on the order of around 1%.

Has anyone tried to estimate the Survival Rate of M1903 Springfields? 1903A3 and 1903 A4 (Remington) Springfields?

Inquiring minds want to know since the '03 Springfields were used in so many wars over the years. No doubt, the Survival Rate has been reduced because of government scrapping, dumping in the oceans, etc.

THANKS

[Rick the Librarian]

You'd also have to decide if you want to include only those in original condition, or include sporters, as well.

I do admit I wouldn't even know where to begin to come up with such a percentage.

[John Beard]

When I first became interested in M1903 rifles 30 years ago, I had the same question. While attending gun shows, I noted more Trapdoor Springfields than M1903's, perhaps by 2:1. And most Trapdoor rifles survived and were sold to the American public. And Trapdoor production was a bit less than 500,000. So the survival rate for M1903's was significantly less than 500,000. Since that time, the CMP has sold 48,000 rifles from Greece plus perhaps 2,000 CMH/VFW/American Legion rifles.

For comparison purposes, Winchester has manufactured something in excess of 5,000,000 Model 94 lever action rifles. If those rifles were wooden cross ties, that would be enough to build a railroad track from my home in Alabama to California! Mile after mile after mile, stepping on nothing but Model 94 rifles! Imagine a gun rack that long! Step up and pick you one out!

Food for thought. Happy Holidays!

J.B.

[Dick Hosmer]

Uhhh - not exactly. Even if you are "only" counting .45-70s, the total is closer to 568,000. If you throw in the 5,000 M1865s, 52,400 M1866s, 52,000 M1868s, 3,400 M1869 Cadets, 1,400 Foragers, and the 12,000 M1870s, the total is nearly 695,000.

That said, I'd also take issue with your survival rate, and your method of determination. Nowadays, I see more '03s than trapdoors!

FWIW, the figure on which I have always operated, which seems to crop up over and over, is a 20-25% survival rate for 19th century military arms. I am not an expert on the later period.

Also, FWIW, but on a slightly different aspect - my "success rate" with SRS hits is almost exactly proportional to the overall average (about 5%) of surviving records.

Merry Christmas!

[Dick Hosmer]

Granted there is absolutely no way of producing a definitive answer, the thread surely hit a brick wall - I wonder why?

[Rick the Librarian]

Don't have a clue -- do you, Dick??

[John Beard]

Uhhh - not exactly. Even if you are "only" counting .45-70s, the total is closer to 568,000. If you throw in the 5,000 M1865s, 52,400 M1866s, 52,000 M1868s, 3,400 M1869 Cadets, 1,400 Foragers, and the 12,000 M1870s, the total is nearly 695,000.

That said, I'd also take issue with your survival rate, and your method of determination. Nowadays, I see more '03s than trapdoors!

FWIW, the figure on which I have always operated, which seems to crop up over and over, is a 20-25% survival rate for 19th century military arms. I am not an expert on the later period.

Also, FWIW, but on a slightly different aspect - my "success rate" with SRS hits is almost exactly proportional to the overall average (about 5%) of surviving records.

Merry Christmas!

My estimate regarding trapdoors pertained only to the .45-70 rifles. If the government made 568,000 and the survival rate is only 20-25%, where did the remaining 75-80% go? I recognize that a certain level of attrition can be expected from rifles issued for service, i.e., combat losses, irreparable damage, etc. But I wouldn't expect that figure to be anywhere near 75-80%. Perhaps 25% at the most. So what did the government do with the remaining 75%? I know many were sold to the American public. Were any given to foreign governments?

Anytime the CMP makes a sale of M1903 rifles, I see them at gun shows for the next couple of years. Not everyone buys them with the intention of keeping them for any period of time. But they trade hands for a couple of years, then gradually disappear to a background level.

I haven't done a recent comparison of trapdoor rifles versus M1903 rifles. So one can only speculate regarding the survival rate.

J.B.

[Dick Hosmer]

Good question - no one really knows. Some M1866s went to France, some .45-70s may have gone to Britain in the '40s (some Krags did). Also, do not forget the metal scrap drives of WW1 and WW2. Then there are the (some apochryphal I'm sure) stories of trapdoor barrels used as rebar, and SA burning stocks in their furnaces, etc. As you say, it is all speculation, and also, to a degree, it even matters where one takes their gun-show census.

[Fred]

I've heard that China received a bunch of the 45-70's. Anybody know?

[Cosine26]

Survival of M1903”s

That is a good question. I agree with Rick that one would have to clarify what was meant by survival Would you include the Remington M1903’s in the count? The RIA’s -yes, but or the 03A3’s and A4’s? Is a M1903 converted to a sporter to be considered a survivor?
The number of special rifles probably constitutes only a small number of the M1903 actions manufactured.
Consider the following:
1. Many were furnished to the Chinese during WWII. Where are they?
2. I believe that when the SHT rifles were returned for overhaul, the SHT receivers were destroyed.
3. During the between the wars period, when a SHT rifle was received for rebarreling, a new receiver was fitted and the old one was destroyed.
4. Between the wars the M1903 was sold to NRA members-mostly for conversion to sporters-probably not a whole lot.
5. After WWII the rifle was declared surplus and sold off to NRA members. Quite early (1947) in the post WWII era the DCM was notified that the stock of M1903’s was depleted and no more were available.
6. After WWII one could surrender a SHT receiver and for $7.50 trade for a serviceable DHT or NS receiver. I do not know how many of these trades were made but I turned in two. I am sure that the ones I turned were destroyed. After about 1955 no more M1903 receivers were available only 03A3 barreled receivers.
7. Between the wars, some companies managed to procure surplus parts such as low number receivers and market them. Bannerman procured a quantity and turned them into Bannerman special rifles-SHT receivers fitted with M1917 bolts and sold them as “Bannerman Specials”.
8. In the post WWII time period, various dealers advertised both high and low numbered M1903’s for sale. Where did they come from and where did they go?
Just some thoughts.

[Coffeecup]

Good question - no one really knows. Some M1866s went to France, some .45-70s may have gone to Britain in the '40s (some Krags did).

At least a few did; I've heard or read of a couple from former Home Guard members. What isn't clear is if these were sent by private citizens during one of the drives to arm Britain, or if they were sent from government stocks.

[Shooter5]

WAG: approx 150,000 of all types is the US and another 10-15,000 in European collectors hands.

[Dick Hosmer]

Survival of M1903”s

That is a good question. I agree with Rick that one would have to clarify what was meant by survival Would you include the Remington M1903’s in the count? The RIA’s -yes, but or the 03A3’s and A4’s? Is a M1903 converted to a sporter to be considered a survivor?
The number of special rifles probably constitutes only a small number of the M1903 actions manufactured.
Consider the following:
1. Many were furnished to the Chinese during WWII. Where are they?
2. I believe that when the SHT rifles were returned for overhaul, the SHT receivers were destroyed.
3. During the between the wars period, when a SHT rifle was received for rebarreling, a new receiver was fitted and the old one was destroyed.
4. Between the wars the M1903 was sold to NRA members-mostly for conversion to sporters-probably not a whole lot.
5. After WWII the rifle was declared surplus and sold off to NRA members. Quite early (1947) in the post WWII era the DCM was notified that the stock of M1903’s was depleted and no more were available.
6. After WWII one could surrender a SHT receiver and for $7.50 trade for a serviceable DHT or NS receiver. I do not know how many of these trades were made but I turned in two. I am sure that the ones I turned were destroyed. After about 1955 no more M1903 receivers were available only 03A3 barreled receivers.
7. Between the wars, some companies managed to procure surplus parts such as low number receivers and market them. Bannerman procured a quantity and turned them into Bannerman special rifles-SHT receivers fitted with M1917 bolts and sold them as “Bannerman Specials”.
8. In the post WWII time period, various dealers advertised both high and low numbered M1903’s for sale. Where did they come from and where did they go?
Just some thoughts.

Now THAT'S the kind of answer I was looking for!

For the record, what I think of as a "survivor" is an arm, made in former times - be they 1875 or 1905, which, whether an awful bubba or pristine jewel, can be held in one's hand and reflected upon, today. Obviously, both trapdoors and 1903s can be parsed as to model. That said, FWIW, I see way more "generic 1903s" than I do "generic trapdoors".

[Cosine26]

M1903 Final Disposal

As a couple of follow on questions:
1. I wonder what happened to the USMC M1903's. By 1945 the MARDET on m ship was equipped with M1's so I would believe that all first line outfits were probably M1 equipped. Also after WWI the USMC probably had gone completely to the M1.
2. The Army had some LN M1903's late in WWII. I wonder how the disposed of them. The army never sold LN M1903's through the DCM post WWII. Roy Dunlap in his book ORDNANCE WENT UP FRONT indicates that his outfit had some LN M1903's when enroute to the Philippines.
3. In the early 1960's I entered a gun shop in El Paso Texas and there were two or three racks of LN M1903's - probably 50 to 75 rifles.. Some were as low as four digit serial numbers in script with new WWII barrels and bolts. I would wonder if these were war reserve left over from WWII.

[Art]

M1903 Final Disposal

As a couple of follow on questions:
1. I wonder what happened to the USMC M1903's. By 1945 the MARDET on m ship was equipped with M1's so I would believe that all first line outfits were probably M1 equipped. Also after WWI the USMC probably had gone completely to the M1.
2. The Army had some LN M1903's late in WWII. I wonder how the disposed of them. The army never sold LN M1903's through the DCM post WWII. Roy Dunlap in his book ORDNANCE WENT UP FRONT indicates that his outfit had some LN M1903's when enroute to the Philippines.
3. In the early 1960's I entered a gun shop in El Paso Texas and there were two or three racks of LN M1903's - probably 50 to 75 rifles.. Some were as low as four digit serial numbers in script with new WWII barrels and bolts. I would wonder if these were war reserve left over from WWII.

1. On the Marine '03s. The Marines got their rifles from the Army and I'm sure they returned them to the Army. The army then disposed of them as per their S.O.P.

2. A lot of the Army surviving low number '03s were sold or loaned to allies after WWII, hence the Greek return low number rifles.

3. My money is yes, left over war reserve.

There were only a bit over 2,000,000 of these rifles made, including '03A3s, not a huge amount by M1 rifle or M1 Carbine standards. Over half of the '03s were "low numbers." Their survivability was aided by the fact that while they were a standard rifle for over 40 years their combat usage wasn't as high as one would think. On the other hand, the Army was actively destroying low number receivers on a continuous basis between the wars and I suspect that as many as 30,000 may have been destroyed in this manner and their parts built into high number rifles. I have a rifle that I am virtually 100% sure is the result of this practice and I know others who have similar rifles. I will just about guarantee that DCM low number rifles returned for exchange were also scrapped, at least the receivers anyhow.

My personal WAG on the total number of rifles surviving in operating condition worldwide, including sporters is somewhere in the 300,000 to 350,000 range but my guess isn't any better than Shooter5s. If you count inoperable demilitarized rifles in the hands of drill teams and assorted museums you might add 10,000 but I figure not much more than that.