The NSC Pandemic Playbook

[togor]

Politico got a copy of the NSC's pandemic playbook from 2016, and has it online for viewing.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...council-149285

It's not hard to follow, especially if you have extra time on your hands.

Clearly not followed by the current administration. One might ask "why not?"

[rayg]

Were is it not followed..Name the sections..also it's from 2016....Maybe there were some changes....

[Vern Humphrey]

This reads like an Army manual I once reviewed -- it listed the questions the S2 (intelligence officer) is supposed to answer, but showed him ASKING those questions of the company commanders!!

If I had written this book, there would be a table showing how much PPE was needed at each level of an epidemic or pandemic. That would be followed by a list of the inventories to be queried, with the email or phone numbers of the responsible people.

[lyman]

from 2016... hmmm

[togor]

from 2016... hmmm

Exactly.

[togor]

Were is it not followed..Name the sections..also it's from 2016....Maybe there were some changes....

Ray look at the assumptions on page 31 on how the US government is expected to respond in this playbook. Predicting it's all going to blow over soon is singularly not on the list.

Hillary would have been on top of this, as onerous as it might be to consider. This kind of deep state bureaucratic operation was her jam.

[Johnny P]

Right or wrong, it is much easier to believe something that doesn't agree with someone you dislike.

[Vern Humphrey]

Right or wrong, it is much easier to believe something that doesn't agree with someone you dislike.

There you have it -- "I can twist it to make Donald Trump look bad, so it HAS to be true.'

[lyman]

Ray look at the assumptions on page 31 on how the US government is expected to respond in this playbook. Predicting it's all going to blow over soon is singularly not on the list.

Hillary would have been on top of this, as onerous as it might be to consider. This kind of deep state bureaucratic operation was her jam.

damn,


I need a beer,



she would only care if it made her look good, or got a healthy donation to the foundation,

[rayg]

read it. Just general procedures...What about it?...

[togor]

read it. Just general procedures...What about it?...

They didn't follow it. Even now the White House messaging apparatus changes weekly. Is Pence in charge or Birx? Where's Jared? We declare emergencies to move construction money to the wall, but we can't declare an emergency to get US industry fired up to build critical supplies? Here's the deal--it takes time to start up a new line. Waiting to declare the emergency delays the start date. Some people still don't understand how exponential math works. Time can be your best friend or your worst enemy. And when you're behind (which we are) any decision you make today is one you probably should have made weeks ago.

The basic questions are:

In what fraction of cases will a vent(ilator) make the difference between life and death?

What are the estimates of sick at one time?

What is the expected demand for vent(ilator)s?

How can they be best deployed to match the progress of the disease?

What is the lead time for industry to increase production? (Hint: if it's long, don't engage in what I call Berndt's Fallacy -- delaying the start of an unavoidable action when there is no alternative because of the apparent lateness of circumstances)

All of this is Federal level of planning, not sending states helter-skelter into the marketplace for their own ventilators, which once they have them, will be difficult to impossible to redeploy around the nation.

It's important for people to understand in real time what they're doing wrong in DC.

[rayg]

Okay, lets go back to the first paragraph of the general procedures you wanted me to look at, And here is what it says....
Quote: "Early in the emerence of an early infectious threat, either in or out side the United States. There will be more unknown then known. Decision makers will choose actions with incomplete information.

And you do see the words "EARLY and INCOMPLETE".....And further that Decision makers will choose actions with incomplete information... All your references on/for decisions or recommendations are to be used after the "determination" of a threat....In the beginning there was no "official government" determination that there was a threat....Just speculation based on incomplete information...Thanks to China...

[togor]

Yes it says that.

But incomplete information does not account for an uncoordinated response or telling the states they are leading this fight (not the Federal Government).

In any case it's history now. Things are moving very fast. But a chronicle of the early days will be written and it will not be enjoyable reading.

Question for you, Ray. Open up the country at Easter and let the disease run its course?

[rayg]

[QUOTE=togor;578127]Yes it says that.

But incomplete information does not account for an uncoordinated response or telling the states they are leading this fight (not the Federal Government).[/QUOTE

Double talk...Lol

[Vern Humphrey]

damn,


I need a beer,



she would only care if it made her look good, or got a healthy donation to the foundation,

Right. Hillary would have been on top of it -- just like she was on top of providing more security to Benghazi.