Corona Virus Article of the Day - April Fools Day 2020

[Art]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/medicare-for-all-wouldnt-have-better-prepared-us-for-the-coronavirus

As a note on this. The death rate for Italy as a percent of infected people is 11.9%. The United States has a death rate of 2.23% of confirmed infected cases. Only Germany has a lower rate at 1.7%. The next lowest percentage of deaths per number of infections to the United States (excluding China for obvious reasons) is Belgium at 5.93%. This could change of course but the percentage of dead folks to people confirmed to have the disease is the best marker. One reason is, unlike most of the other countries on the list our system hasn't been overwhelmed to the point that our triage people have become part of death panels.

[Vern Humphrey]

Another reason is we have more testing capability -- so we can identify people with mild or no symptoms.

[togor]

Remember that the death count lags the case count by about two weeks. So when cases are ramping up the death rate can appear low.

[dogtag]

I just wish the Italians and others were doing as well as we are(at least as we are, so far)
The last thing I want to do is brag that we're smarter than they are.

[Art]

Remember that the death count lags the case count by about two weeks. So when cases are ramping up the death rate can appear low.

The article actually mentions that possibility, and it is real. I also think that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths total is a real possibility in this country, even with really successful mitigation efforts.

But:

Death rate as a percentage of the infected population is different from the number of infections or the number of total deaths. I have been watching this from the beginning and the percentage of deaths to infections of the other countries two weeks ago was substantially higher than in the US right now. Of course that could change but the death rates in the US and Germany are so much lower I don't think we'll catch up on that one. Italy is on the down side and 700+ people died there yesterday. We had 665 deaths yesterday but that's on six times as many people. I was listening to Dr. Birx talk about the situation in the UK. She said in the UK there are a total of 8,000 ventilators, that would be the equivalent of 40,000 in the US adjusted for population. She said we have a total of 100,000 ventilators all in and still have some ventilators in reserve. That makes a huge difference.

[togor]

I just wish the Italians and others were doing as well as we are(at least as we are, so far)
The last thing I want to do is brag that we're smarter than they are.

DT that brag will probably not be a thing by the time we're done with this. Many parts of the country slow to react.

- - - Updated - - -

The article actually mentions that possibility, and it is real. I also think that 100,000 to 200,000 deaths total is a real possibility in this country, even with really successful mitigation efforts.

But:

Death rate as a percentage of the infected population is different from the number of infections or the number of total deaths. I have been watching this from the beginning and the percentage of deaths to infections of the other countries two weeks ago was substantially higher than in the US right now. Of course that could change but the death rates in the US and Germany are so much lower I don't think we'll catch up on that one. Italy is on the down side and 700+ people died there yesterday. We had 665 deaths yesterday but that's on six times as many people. I was listening to Dr. Birx talk about the situation in the UK. She said in the UK there are a total of 8,000 ventilators, that would be the equivalent of 40,000 in the US adjusted for population. She said we have a total of 100,000 ventilators all in and still have some ventilators in reserve. That makes a huge difference.

The metric that gets past differences in testing/diagnosed case rates is deaths/1M population. We're lower than Europe on this one for now but it remains to be seen where everyone Iands. If improved treatments come along then places hit later reap a larger benefit.

[dogtag]

DT that brag will probably not be a thing by the time we're done with this. Many parts of the country slow to react.

It's hard to react when there's nothing to react to.
My County (Marin) had no cases until last week (now less than 100).
Only a handful of masks to be seen (I saw 3 in Safeway on Monday)

[Vern Humphrey]

It's hard to react when there's nothing to react to.
My County (Marin) had no cases until last week (now less than 100).
Only a handful of masks to be seen (I saw 3 in Safeway on Monday)

When I have to go shopping, I go in MOPP 4.

[dogtag]

When I have to go shopping, I go in MOPP 4.

I hold my breath. I'm getting to be a very fast shopper.