A World Without the Police

[Art]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/04/25/mitch-albom-defund-the-police-haiti-aoc-rashida-talib-column/7326118002/

I don't see the U.S. quite coming to where Haiti is in the above story, at least in my lifetime. I do see the US very possibly becoming a place where upper and even middle class communities hire private security forces to protect themselves as the country becomes increasingly lawless. These security services already exist and will become much more common in the not too distant future. If you belong to a community that can't afford the tariff, well, shame on you, I guess you'll have to buy your very limited protection from the gangs. I also see a country where upper and middle class people become extremely careful about leaving their safe enclaves and poor communities become more and more isolated and unsafe. I'm not going to guess a time frame but I suspect, unless the trends change dramatically, I could live to see this stuff happen and at 73 that's not an encouraging thought

The AOCs and Rashida Talibs, business big shots, and assorted political posturers already live in this bubble, and we won't even talk about folks like Nancy Pelosi who not only has Secret Service protection on the road because she's a congressional leader, but first rate private security around her home because she's stinkin' rich.

[togor]

Crime was down, before the Covid bump. It will go down again.

The rich have had their private guards forever.

We'll have police forces as long as humans live in dense population groups.

[Art]

Crime was down, before the Covid bump. It will go down again.

As the Zen Master said - "We'll see."

I'm not talking private security for just the very rich, I made it very clear in the OP that if they don't have it already they can get it easily, nor about wealthy communities where median income is $500,000.00 a year and up that can also get it easily if they don't have it. I'm including private security (that is private policing) for communities that average $75,000.00 to $150,000.00. That's squarely in the middle class in most places in this country and lower middle to lower class in some places on the west coast and northeast.

[rayg]

In general, Private security employees generally do not have the months of training nor the authority regular police have and are generally used as watchmen or guards unless hired in another capacity...They do serve a need and provide a service but they don't have the law full authority as the regular police do!... So in serious incidents the police have to be called..

[Art]

rayg:

I'm not talking about a situation like the 1970s when crime was rampant, especially in major cities but if you called the police and they came around in a reasonably timely manner. I'm talking about a situation where you're living in urban or suburban America, you call the police and they either don't come at all or come so late you may as well not have bothered. In that situation the authorities are just going to come around to pick up the bodies. Colombia spent a couple of decades in that situation before handing their problems off to Mexico, and Mexico is just starting to come out of that situation, Haiti, unfortunately, is probably there indefinatly. Those societies are much more fragile than ours but anything can be broken if you hit it hard enough, often enough.

We're not there yet and hopefully never will be but in situations where, for whatever reason, the police are truly ineffective and its every man for himself, every community where the people who have any money at all will use it to try to stay safe. If that means a quasi legal form of vigilantism such as exists now in parts of Mexico, that's what they'll do; either by taking care of it themselves (Michoacan, Mex.) or hiring it done (Sao Paolo, Brazil.)

[togor]

In rural areas, fast police response is not expected even now. That's why we have rock gardens, so we can defend ourselves!

[Art]

In Detroit, response time is so slow due to lack of funds and the large areas to be covered by the very depleted police force that the chief came up with the rock solution....sort of. He stated on the record that due to the extremely slow response times; people get CHLs if eligible and carry regularly.

[togor]

Folks in the Mpls 3rd Precinct did just that. And they do things a little differently than the police but get results. Gotta have police there somewhere in case things get out of hand, and stump justice has its own set of problems.

[Vern Humphrey]

As the Zen Master said - "We'll see."

I'm not talking private security for just the very rich, I made it very clear in the OP that if they don't have it already they can get it easily, nor about wealthy communities where median income is $500,000.00 a year and up that can also get it easily if they don't have it. I'm including private security (that is private policing) for communities that average $75,000.00 to $150,000.00. That's squarely in the middle class in most places in this country and lower middle to lower class in some places on the west coast and northeast.

Covid has nothing to do with the current "crime bump." The current surge in crime is due to politicians supporting and urging on people who espouse violence.

[rayg]

rayg:

I'm not talking about a situation like the 1970s when crime was rampant, especially in major cities but if you called the police and they came around in a reasonably timely manner. I'm talking about a situation where you're living in urban or suburban America, you call the police and they either don't come at all or come so late you may as well not have bothered. In that situation the authorities are just going to come around to pick up the bodies. Colombia spent a couple of decades in that situation before handing their problems off to Mexico, and Mexico is just starting to come out of that situation, Haiti, unfortunately, is probably there indefinatly. Those societies are much more fragile than ours but anything can be broken if you hit it hard enough, often enough.

We're not there yet and hopefully never will be but in situations where, for whatever reason, the police are truly ineffective and its every man for himself, every community where the people who have any money at all will use it to try to stay safe. If that means a quasi legal form of vigilantism such as exists now in parts of Mexico, that's what they'll do; either by taking care of it themselves (Michoacan, Mex.) or hiring it done (Sao Paolo, Brazil.)

Art not sure I understand your remark about a situation like the 1970s when crime was rampant? I thought it is petty rampant now..at least in the cities...Was there more crime in the 70's?

[Vern Humphrey]

Art not sure I understand your remark about a situation like the 1970s when crime was rampant? I thought it it petty rampant now..at least in the cities...Was there more crime in the 70's?

The '70s were the era of the civil rights riots.

[Art]

Art not sure I understand your remark about a situation like the 1970s when crime was rampant? I thought it is petty rampant now..at least in the cities...Was there more crime in the 70's?

Yup, I am saying that.

Murder rates are a good place to start:

In the 1950s the U.S. murder rate was under 5 per 100,000. Then in the late sixties things started to change.

U.S. murder rate in 2018 = 5.9 per 100,000 people
" " 1970 = 8.8 Per 100 k people
" " 1980 = 10.4 per 100k people
" " 2000 = 5.9 per 100 K people

The murder rate started to decline in the mid to late 1990s and has stayed pretty much the same since 2000 at 5.9 - 6.2 murders per 100,000 people, not the '50s but a lot better than the 1970s and '80s. Rates for other crimes showed similar declines from 1980 to 2000. There were a lot of reasons, Two of the big ones were aggressive "broken window policing and changes in sentencing guidelines largely due to the crime control act of 1993 at the Federal level and similar laws at the state level. I will admit that the sentencing of minor offenders to very long prison terms was overdone but that was rectified in the Trump Administration.

I worked in New York City in the 1970s. Back then it was an incredibly crime ridden violent place. Under The Giuliani and Bloomberg administrations it became the safest big city in the United States and a couple of years ago was actually safer than London.

[S.A. Boggs]

Covid has nothing to do with the current "crime bump." The current surge in crime is due to politicians supporting and urging on people who espouse violence.

Hit the nail right on the head!
Sam

[barretcreek]

Been having this talk with a long time friend who is an attorney (not criminal defense). The gist is gov't has been handing off its functions to the private sector for a while and ain't gonna stop. Less liability, no constitutional conflicts. Privates get the job done and LE protects the gov't and shows the flag.

[blackhawknj]

Everybody assumes that decent people will withdraw into gated communities, etc. No police ? Who's to stop the Paul Kerseys ? No police ? Who enforces the laws against carrying in states with no CCW ? No police? And the next time a riot starts and all those tax paying citizens show up with their-"gasp"-EBRs-and others are on over watch with a scoped rifle and 100 rounds.