Chinas declining birth rate

[dryheat]

Well, of all things, China is concerned about it declining birth rate. They have raised the number of kids a family is allowed from one to two and now three, but the birth rate has been falling every one of the last five years. They are worried about it. It takes young people to keep everything going and who is going to take care of their Boomers? Young families there are the same as here. It's expensive to have kids and it takes up a lot of time.

[togor]

The strategy as I understood it was China wanted to "get rich before it got old". Looks like they decided they need more time.

Some will disagree but IMO not a terrible plan for the future if the world population gradually, through natural attrition not war or rampant disease, trims down to maybe 50% of current levels and stays there.

If someone wants an eye-opener, look up a list of countries sorted by population density. But remember a big chunk of US acreage is in the west and Alaska, where the carrying capacity is low.

[Art]

The strategy ascI understood it was China wanted to "get rich before it got old". Looks like they decided they need more time.

Some will disagree but IMO not a terrible plan for the future if the world population gradually, through natural attrition not war or rampant disease, trims down to maybe 50% of current levels and stays there.

If someone wants an eye-opener, look up a list of countries sorted by population density. But remember a big chunk of US acreage is in the west and Alaska, where the carrying capacity is low.

The only segment of the U.S. population that is at or above the 2.1 child per woman replacement rate is Latinos and they are right at 2.1. The increase in the U.S. population, which has grown by over 120,000,000 since 1970 is entirely immigration driven. Everybody wants to talk about electric cars and solar panels but the biggest driver of environmental problems in the U.S. is population growth and that equals increased immigration both legal and illegal. There is no reason for the U.S. population to be above 280,000,000, 300,000,000 at the most. At the current rate we're probably looking at well over 400,000,000 people before the end of this century, maybe well before then.

[togor]

In an economy based on consumption, which we have, the #1 driver of economic growth is population growth. In smaller countries, those with export-driven economies like Japan and Germany, it's not so true. But here, a lot of jobs are based on an assumption of growth, of increasing demand from a growing population.

[Art]

In an economy based on consumption, which we have, the #1 driver of economic growth is population growth. In smaller countries, those with export-driven economies like Japan and Germany, it's not so true. But here, a lot of jobs are based on an assumption of growth, of increasing demand from a growing population.

So what's the limit, 500,000,000 people, a billion, two billion?

Japan has a birth rate of under 1.5 children per woman, and virtually no immigration; hundreds of Japanese villages will be abandoned by 2050 at the current rate. Germany has a birth rate of just over 1.5 births per woman and has become very dependent on immigration mostly from the middle and near east to maintain their economy.

You don't want to be India (whose birth rate has dropped from 8 births per woman to 2.3 since 1960) and you don't want to be Japan. The Indian median age is 27. The Japanese median age is 48. Too few people is bad and so is too many.

[togor]

Were population rates to stabilize globally, there would still be migration pressures based on differences in population density. Ever met an Indian who wasn't glad to be out of South Asia? We can only imagine the congestion of daily life there.

[dryheat]

I remember when the US hit 200,000,000. Now we are over 300. No way was that even close to birthrate. It's people from all over the world pouring in. Yeah, "it's good for the economy". It's fun to talk to people from other countries. You sure don't want to live in a stagnant pond. But I hate crowds. I remember looking at Nat. Geo when I was a kid and there were pictures of all the weird people all over the world and often it was pics of shoulder to shoulder crowds. Now I know that you can compress a scene with a long lens on your camera but I was kind of horrified that people could be jammed together like that. As I'm getting older I'm getting more claustraphobic. I can't crawl under the truck to change the oil or shocks and I will never go into another lava cave.

[pmclaine]

Chinas prepping for war.

If a Company of Marines can account for 4000 or so Chinese in 3 nights of fighting than they are going to need people.

I think they are over estimating though as Im not sure the US has has as many people today willing to go through what Fox 2/7 did at Tok Tong Pass.