Speculators cannot drive prices up.
Look at it this way. I believe gas prices are going up, so I buy an option to buy a million gallons at $10.00 a gallon.
IF prices go above $10,00 a gallon, I make money. I win.
If they don't go that high (and I don't sell the option to a bigger fool) then I have to take delivery on a million gallons at $10.00 a gallon. I lose.
Now for me to actually DO that, I have to find someone who believes princes won't go that high. I buy that option from him. I am in effect, betting against him. If prices don't go to $10 a gallon, he wins. WE CAN'T BOTH WIN!!
Yet if those who say speculators drive prices are correct, we would BOTH have to win! And that is logically and mathematically impossible.
Look at it this way. I believe gas prices are going up, so I buy an option to buy a million gallons at $10.00 a gallon.
IF prices go above $10,00 a gallon, I make money. I win.
If they don't go that high (and I don't sell the option to a bigger fool) then I have to take delivery on a million gallons at $10.00 a gallon. I lose.
Now for me to actually DO that, I have to find someone who believes princes won't go that high. I buy that option from him. I am in effect, betting against him. If prices don't go to $10 a gallon, he wins. WE CAN'T BOTH WIN!!
Yet if those who say speculators drive prices are correct, we would BOTH have to win! And that is logically and mathematically impossible.


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