The Problem With Oil

[togor]

https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/crude-oil-balance-trade-data.html

In the map, clink on different countries then scroll down. Since the fracking started the US is a net importer to a much smaller degree.

Then click on China. Their demand goes up, up, up every year!

Except now they're maybe looking at a COVID year of their own, and as a result the market price is coming down.

Time to go nuclear, IMO. EV tech allows us to start moving the transportation sector off of petroleum, so Americans aren't competing directly with China at the pump.

[Major Tom]

Ain't no way EV vehicles will 'take over'! Why? too high purchase price, very few recharging stations, very limited range and having a plug in at home is not a money wise install.

[dryheat]

Remember those pictures of thousands of Chinese riding bicycles? Now they drive. I guy told me that there are super hiways in China 50 lanes wide. That's not really true. But the Chinese have to que up in huge parking lots to wait their turn to get on a hiway. There's a lot of Chinese.

[Johnny P]

Recently saw an article on the Rivian battery powered truck. The Rivian is somewhere between a mid-size and full size truck, with a high horsepower motor and price. In an independent test they towed a Ford F100 on a trailer to see just how far they could go, and it went something like 108 miles. All the charging stations they found were designed for an automobile to pull into, and no way to get the Rivian with trailer up to the charging station without either unhooking the trailer, or leaving the trailer hanging out in the drive.

Not ready for prime time yet.

[bruce]

EV's are very useful for those who do not need to make routine trips of long duration. In many urban environments, typical daily driving will not even approach 100 miles. Many current EV's easily exceed this distance with extra to spare. Charging is not a problem. When I owned a LEAF, I just plugged it in when I got home from the office. That would have been somewhere around 7-8 PM. By the next morning, it was ready to go. Never had a bit of trouble with it. In addition, as charging stations were built out, I was able to "top off" the charge while parked at the hospital making visits, or even at the mall. The plug in at home was not a big deal. Local electrician did the install. My wife found it not a problem at all. There was no effect on our electric bill at all. Net cost was $200 road use tax to the state. When I was later appointed to a church where out of town trips were required, the car was sold in less than 24 hours for $500 less than I paid. Sincerely. Bruce.

[togor]

Ain't no way EV vehicles will 'take over'! Why? too high purchase price, very few recharging stations, very limited range and having a plug in at home is not a money wise install.

Look at the market cap of Tesla versus other automakers. That tells you where capitalism is placing its bets. What is needed is an upgrade to electricity production and nothing out there does it like nuclear.

[lyman]

EV will be a thing once (and if) the charging stations /power grid/ etc issues are worked out,

in mainly urban areas,
and only when the price comes down

now, for the most part, a Tesla is a status symbol,

there are not a lot of Nissan Leaf's or others around (full EV)

and what good will it due for those that drive 60+ miles a day,? or take long trips?


with some of the major manufacturers announcing no more gas engines, the EV will be a thing eventually,


but it will be another couple generations before Farmer Brown adopts it on the farm, or that rural person buys and EV vs a gas car or hybrid

[RED]

What too many people are missing is major changes come along when they become very needed and somebody will figure out a fix. That time just is not here yet. How long did it take for sailing ships to be powered by steam engines, then turbines and now many of our Navy vessels arepowered by steam produced by nuclear reactors.

Horse and buggies became obsolete when Ford invented the model T and farmers plowing with horses, mules, and oxen took a little longer but International Harvester, John Deere. and ford with the 9N (1939) the 3N (1943) and 8N (1948) made small farmers competitive again. The match lock musket was a starter, and was replaced by flintlocks, which was ended by percussion caps, then brass cartridges, none of these changes were overnight fixes.

When it gets too difficult to produce carbon based fuels somebody will come up a solution but artificially inflating the cost of oil will actually delay the process. But homelessness can be fixed if the homeless goes out and buys themselves a home (average price $295,300), or if gas gets so inflated people have to either eat or buy gas, of course all they have to do is go buy a electric car. ($60K.)

No matter what we do it will be meaningless unless China, India, and Russia do the same and China just launched a plan to build 43 new coal fired power plants in the next 3 years.

Oh well the poor people can always eat cake.

[Mike in NC]

Look at the market cap of Tesla versus other automakers. That tells you where capitalism is placing its bets. What is needed is an upgrade to electricity production and nothing out there does it like nuclear.

The success of Tesla vs. the other automakers might also have something to do with the fact the other automakers are practically owned by the United Auto Workers union.

[lyman]

[togor]

Lyman's GIF is partially true.

But that fuel is bought wholesale, not retail. Now in some places retail hourly spot prices for electricity are becoming a thing, but that hits air conditioners and electric heaters more than EVs. Nonetheless solar cells and wind turbines aren't going to get the country through and the gas won't last forever.