States starting to lift restrictions To soon or not?

[rayg]

The longer the country is under the restrictions the harder it will be for people and businesses to survive economically. Is it too soon for Trump to lift the restrictions soon?
The article is via the liberal and anti American Dailymail but still interesting...

Trump on Thursday gave governors a road map for recovering from the economic pain of the coronavirus pandemic, laying out 'a phased and deliberate approach' to restoring normal activity in places that have strong testing and are seeing a decrease in COVID-19 cases

The US states with tentative re-opening dates: Alabama, Idaho, Ohio and Michigan have plans to lift restrictions on May 1 - a day after Trump outlined guidelines and hard-hit places like New York extended lockdowns until May 15

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...Minnesota.html

[Vern Humphrey]

We can't know if it's too soon or too late -- only experience will tell us. But we do know who will complain to the high heavens, however it turns out.

[togor]

There is a proven formula, and the states that follow it will have the most success. The formula is a combination of testing around and tracing of active cases, simultaneously regulating public activity to keep the outbreak within set limits. So a technocratic approach combined with old fashioned public outreach. Anathema to some, obviously.

Without the Federal Government playing a useful role it will be a lot harder. In some states the de facto plan might end up being to just let the virus wash all sins clean.

[m1ashooter]

Hard to say actually. I don't believe in reinventing the wheel so I'd look real hard at how the CHICOMS are opening things back up. Our problem is state has different restrictions.

[rayg]

Regardless if a state reduces restrictions on leaving homes, you should still wear a mask, maintain distances, and follow the procedures when returning home to sanitize hands and items...

[Art]

Regardless if a state reduces restrictions on leaving homes, you should still wear a mask, maintain distances, and follow the procedures when returning home to sanitize hands and items...

Texas is starting to lift restrictions on Wed. the 22nd, with the requirements rayg mentions re masks and distancing. Right now opening the state is going to be incremental depending on how things go. There are hug swaths of Texas that have no cases or very few so some counties may open up sooner than others.

[togor]

Hard to say actually. I don't believe in reinventing the wheel so I'd look real hard at how the CHICOMS are opening things back up. Our problem is state has different restrictions.

Watch the Germans. Greater similarity between their Federal System and ours in terms of individual rights, etc. And Germans really know how to obey, which can be a real advantage if the leadership is good.

USA testing rates needs to be 3X greater to sustain nationwide opening. Otherwise it's just wave after wave until it's over.

[lyman]

Va is going to revisit opening in mid May, and play it by ear so to speak,
NC has apparently realized it is summer, and also realized what kind of tourist income it will loose, so they are opening the Outer Banks for home owners (as in rental) vs just the locals sometime in the next couple weeks, and open up OBX to renters pre Memorial Day

[Carbine64]

Ohio will start next week on what to open.I hope Barber shops are on the short list soon.Not into man buns.

[Gun Smoke]

There is no correct answer. Americans are use to their freedom and are not taking kind to the restrictions. For most the virus hasn't hit close enough to home to be taken seriously.

Conservatives will praise Trump. Liberals will bash Trump regardless of the decisions and outcome.

I think the president is doing the right thing by trying it out in steps.

Obviously what works in rural areas isn't going to work the same in congested disease laden cities like NYC.

I know the kids are frustrated now. They're out of school, can't go on vacation, can't go to the beach or parks, can't go to ball games, the movies or party's. They basically have nothing to do and have all that "energy".

Time will tell. If we go into a second wave it may be worse and you can bet that on top of the closures we see now face mask being worn outside of your home will become mandatory in all states. A second wave may well place the U.S. into a depression because an additional re-opening will become more controlled, guarded and drawn out.

Like Trump said when this whole thing began: "it will go away when warm weather gets here". It is. Social distancing is no doubt helping too along with the store and activity closures.

This and other killer flus/viruses may become seasonal. They may become known as the Schwarzenegger or Terminator virus: "I'll be back".

[Art]

Watch the Germans. Greater similarity between their Federal System and ours in terms of individual rights, etc. And Germans really know how to obey, which can be a real advantage if the leadership is good.

USA testing rates needs to be 3X greater to sustain nationwide opening. Otherwise it's just wave after wave until it's over.

Before we start backslapping the Germans, they have done about 1.8 million tests in a population of over 50 million as of today. The disease plays an amazing game of hopscotch. In this country over half of all deaths are in the greater New York metro area which means everybody else, including California is doing quite ok, comparatively.

If this country stays shut down through the summer it could instigate a depression every bit as severe as the 1929 stock crash. It could be worse because in 1929 the Federal Government wasn't heavily in debt. The private wealth of tens of millions of individuals and small business will be wiped out, not to mention fragile larger companies. Our solution right now is to prop up these folks with public money but there's only so much money you can loan to yourself before it becomes worthless. Frankly the way the Dems are acting I don't think they really look on that as a totally bad thing or they'd be negotiating right now.

Sweden has actually stayed mostly open. Secondary schools and universities are closed as are sporting events but almost everything else is open for business as usual with some restrictions, for example you can order a drink at your table but not at the bar. They wear masks, and stay six feet apart but that's mostly it. Their rate of infection and death rate is in the mid range of all countries, not as bad as Italy but not as good as Germany. But it is flattening at about the same rate as everybody else's.

[togor]

Art the countries you list have populations that are much more willing to follow government instructions than the US.

Wherever the shutdown line is drawn in this country, someone is on the wrong side of it, and they will howl about the unfairness of it and find a media outlet that amplifies that howl. In the Old World, less of that.

Re: Sweden. Their welfare system may have something to do with it. If sick and paid hourly, don't try to work through it (per usual in the US) for fear of losing job/benefits. People in Sweden may be better at taking themselves out of the game because they can afford to be. No secret that the poor have fewer options for evading the disease.

[S.A. Boggs]

Ohio will start next week on what to open.I hope Barber shops are on the short list soon.Not into man buns.

What I have after chemo my wife trims for me. I did have to give up my moustache to properly wear my respirator.
Sam

[Art]

I didn't list a country except Germany in my post I assume you replied to but Sweden's welfare system (which they've walked back some in the last decade) isn't much different than that of any other western European country.

As of today deaths per 1,000,000 confirmed or suspected cases in typical countries we can count on not to lie:

Spain - 429.0
Italy - 384.4
France - 285.5
U.K. - 232
Netherlands - 209
Sweden - 148
U.S. - 116.7
Germany - 53.4

Every one of these countries except the United States is one of those countries where people are "much more willing to follow government instructions," and have welfare systems similar to Sweden's.

[barretcreek]

I am waiting for a widespread anti-body test sampling program to determine what % of the population has been exposed and developed immunity. That will determine the success or failure of restarting the economy.

We know from the recent measles outbreaks how much 'herd immunity' is necessary to keep an outbreak dampened.