States starting to lift restrictions To soon or not?

[Art]

I am waiting for a widespread anti-body test sampling program to determine what % of the population has been exposed and developed immunity. That will determine the success or failure of restarting the economy.

We know from the recent measles outbreaks how much 'herd immunity' is necessary to keep an outbreak dampened.

We also need to know how long "herd immunity" will last - 6 months ?, a year? two years? In the case of influenza a vaccination isn't forever. Another factor is how this virus handles hot humid weather. We don't know that. Will it fade out in the summer like the flu or not??? Also; how far down the road we are with a vaccine or an effective treatment. Those items together could tell how far away we are from another possible flare up.

Only time will tell.

[togor]

Actually there is data on warm weather outbreaks. Absent social distancing the % increase per day was about half. Not like influenza. Different virus structure.