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Ok horse race fans we're within sight of the finish line. The way it looks to me.
First about polls. They have become increasingly unreliable due to problems with collecting information. The traditional methods of land line calls are outdated and if they find a person who will pick up the phone you go into some sort of "he'll pick up the phone" data base. I've been polled twice this season and missed a third call from a pollster. How different demographic groups are "weighted" has an effect as well. All polling services give a weighting advantage to Democrats. Rasmussen, which is conservative based gives a three point weighting advantage to the Dems. Speaking of Rassmussen they are the only poll that still runs a daily rolling presidential job approval survey. Interestingly Trump's favorability rating through this cycle almost exactly tracks Obama's through the same period. Rasmussen also got the popular vote almost dead on in the last election.
State polls have become notoriously inaccurate. There was a truism that in state polling if the Republican in a presidential race was behind by three points or less in a state race he was probably ahead and if behind by 5 or less he's competitive. Trump blew the lid off that last time by winning several states he was behind in by 6+ points in the final polling.
One other factor is "shy trump voters" actually exist, and in significant numbers. Those people who are concerned enough about retaliation for wearing a MAGA hat they refuse to be polled or don't give accurate information, or more often than others, simply never answer the phone if they don't recognize the number.
Also, Rasmussen is the only polling service that only surveys likely voters all the time. Polls of everybody are almost worthless and polls of registered voters aren't that great either.
So, looking at Rasmussen; Trump in the Wednesday presidential poll last week was behind by 5 points. If he's behind by 5 in two weeks he's probably sunk. His job approval is 48% among likely voters, again with Rasmussen's daily rolling average of likely voters which would tend to mean, assuming everything else is correct, that some people who sort of approve of him also aren't going to vote for him tis time?!?!?!
The competitive state races in which Trump is behind by three or fewer points and therefore likely to win are Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona. If he wins all of those it probably won't be enough. He has to "catch lightening in a bottle" in at least a couple of states where he is considerably behind. One possibility is Minnesota where he came close last time appears solidly ahead in the rural and mining areas of the state and there is also a lot of anxiety in "The Cities" over what amounts to a near collapse of local government and a substantial increase in the crime rate.
Because of the screwy reporting methods right now don't expect a result until mid November at the earliest or possibly close to Christmas if its really close and both sides unleash their lawyers. One example is a Mayor's race in Patterson New Jersey where the courts have decided the results are so screwed up there had to be a re do on the election.
With all that in mind it appears to me that the "Rs" will perobably keep the Senate (barely) which is a very big deal.
Turn out is a very big deal, as always. I voted the other day in my suburban upper middle class Texas "red" district and the line was about 100 yards long. I think that could be an indication that the "Repugs" will turn out in large numbers but even that is nothing more than a SWAG.
My devalued $.02 worth which along with a few bucks might get you on a subway. I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong about everything I've said here, I have been before.....
First about polls. They have become increasingly unreliable due to problems with collecting information. The traditional methods of land line calls are outdated and if they find a person who will pick up the phone you go into some sort of "he'll pick up the phone" data base. I've been polled twice this season and missed a third call from a pollster. How different demographic groups are "weighted" has an effect as well. All polling services give a weighting advantage to Democrats. Rasmussen, which is conservative based gives a three point weighting advantage to the Dems. Speaking of Rassmussen they are the only poll that still runs a daily rolling presidential job approval survey. Interestingly Trump's favorability rating through this cycle almost exactly tracks Obama's through the same period. Rasmussen also got the popular vote almost dead on in the last election.
State polls have become notoriously inaccurate. There was a truism that in state polling if the Republican in a presidential race was behind by three points or less in a state race he was probably ahead and if behind by 5 or less he's competitive. Trump blew the lid off that last time by winning several states he was behind in by 6+ points in the final polling.
One other factor is "shy trump voters" actually exist, and in significant numbers. Those people who are concerned enough about retaliation for wearing a MAGA hat they refuse to be polled or don't give accurate information, or more often than others, simply never answer the phone if they don't recognize the number.
Also, Rasmussen is the only polling service that only surveys likely voters all the time. Polls of everybody are almost worthless and polls of registered voters aren't that great either.
So, looking at Rasmussen; Trump in the Wednesday presidential poll last week was behind by 5 points. If he's behind by 5 in two weeks he's probably sunk. His job approval is 48% among likely voters, again with Rasmussen's daily rolling average of likely voters which would tend to mean, assuming everything else is correct, that some people who sort of approve of him also aren't going to vote for him tis time?!?!?!
The competitive state races in which Trump is behind by three or fewer points and therefore likely to win are Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa and Arizona. If he wins all of those it probably won't be enough. He has to "catch lightening in a bottle" in at least a couple of states where he is considerably behind. One possibility is Minnesota where he came close last time appears solidly ahead in the rural and mining areas of the state and there is also a lot of anxiety in "The Cities" over what amounts to a near collapse of local government and a substantial increase in the crime rate.
Because of the screwy reporting methods right now don't expect a result until mid November at the earliest or possibly close to Christmas if its really close and both sides unleash their lawyers. One example is a Mayor's race in Patterson New Jersey where the courts have decided the results are so screwed up there had to be a re do on the election.
With all that in mind it appears to me that the "Rs" will perobably keep the Senate (barely) which is a very big deal.
Turn out is a very big deal, as always. I voted the other day in my suburban upper middle class Texas "red" district and the line was about 100 yards long. I think that could be an indication that the "Repugs" will turn out in large numbers but even that is nothing more than a SWAG.
My devalued $.02 worth which along with a few bucks might get you on a subway. I wouldn't be surprised to be wrong about everything I've said here, I have been before.....
that had Biden and Hegar signs all over it. That old boy (or girl) didn't seem real concerned about retaliation in that sea of Trumpkins.
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