Does anyone really believe Russia will invade Ukraine

[Art]

What was the last war russia engaged in and won without our help , I can't recall any .

The annexation of the Crimea, Like us, today, they won't fight anyone they don't completely outclass. That hasn't always worked out for them, or us.

The Russians might ask us a similar rhetorical question about WWII in Europe where they inflicted the vast majority of enemy casualties while suffering the highest losses by far while tying down 200 Axis divisions.

[togor]

People forget that Russia invaded Prussia in 1914. Ivan got mauled at Tannenberg but gave the Prussians enough of a scare to pull troops out of the line sweeping Belgium and into Paris. Tribes in Europe have mostly moved east to west, unless something was blocking them (like a river, the Roman Empire, or other tribes). Napoleon and Hitler were conspicuous exceptions.

[blackhawknj]

The Schlieffen Plan, such as it was, envisioned a holding action in the East while France was crushed (harharhar) in a 6 weeks campaign, then German forces would be transferred to the East. However, they forget the most important dictum of the Elder Von Moltke-"No plan of operations survives first contact with the enemy."
In 1974 the Turks invaded Cyprus, in 1983 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus declared its independence, was immediately recognized by Turkey-and no one else. But nobody else has shown any interest in getting the Turks to leave or reuniting Cyprus. I think Putin is following that playbook.

[Vern Humphrey]

The Schlieffen Plan failed because the Belgians failed to increase their road network. The roads were over-capacitated and the Germans couldn't cram through enough troops. The final version of the plan shows the German Army arrayed for battle, and there are three corps that have no specified routes or march tables.

[Art]

The Schlieffen Plan failed because the Belgians failed to increase their road network. The roads were over-capacitated and the Germans couldn't cram through enough troops. The final version of the plan shows the German Army arrayed for battle, and there are three corps that have no specified routes or march tables.

That and the stout defense of Antwerp that not only held out until Oct. 10, but launched regular counterattacks against the German rear.

Back to the issue at hand. There are reports that the Russians have sent in "Peace Keeping Troops" but no accounts of shooting. Of course anything this early is up in the air.

[Art]

Looks like the Russian "Peace Keepers" are rolling in, no reports of shooting yet.

[blackhawknj]

2 heavily Russian areas break away, Putin recognizes them, sends in troops, they probably have very strict orders to maintain a strictly defensive posture. Putin seems to be following Bismarck's playbook, you fight a war for very carefully defined and limited objectives, and unlike Bismarck he is the C-in-C, final authority.

[togor]

The area claimed by the breakaway republics is larger than what they occupy.

[Art]

The area claimed by the breakaway republics is larger than what they occupy.

Maybe not for long.

[togor]

Maybe not for long.

Yes that's the thinking.

An expat friend admits he has stopped trying to handicap P., and is hoping they don't bite off more because he has family back there still.